Are Home Prices Falling? What the Data Really Shows

By Jeff Hernandez, Realtor & Attorney — The Connie Colla Group at RETSY

If you’ve noticed headlines about declining home prices, it’s understandable to feel worried. Your home is a significant asset, and it's natural to be concerned about its value while you’re simply going about your daily life.

But here’s the truth about the market: the national housing market is not in a broad price freefall. Some places are cooling. Many are still rising. And most homeowners are still in a strong position—especially when you zoom out and look at the longer trend.

I’m Jeff Hernandez—an Arizona Realtor® and Attorney—and in Scottsdale and Phoenix, I’ve learned that the “headline version” of real estate rarely matches the “data version.” Let’s look at what the most reputable sources are actually saying.

What’s happening nationally isn’t a crash

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) publishes a widely used home price index based on repeat transactions. In the most recent FHFA House Price Index release, U.S. home prices were up 2.2% year-over-year. That’s growth, not collapse. 

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) also reported the national median existing-home price at $409,200, up 1.2% from a year earlier, marking the 29th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. 

Why the headlines feel scarier than the market

Real estate is local—and headlines are not. Media stories tend to focus on the most dramatic angle, which is usually the exception rather than the rule.

A handful of areas can soften and create loud news coverage, while dozens of states are flat or rising. That’s why it’s risky to make decisions based on national sentiment rather than real data.

Where prices soften—and why that can be normal

Yes, some markets have experienced smaller year-over-year declines. That typically happens after a period when prices rose too quickly. A “cooling off” period can be healthy and is often a sign that the market is normalizing.

In simple terms: a slight dip in select locations is not the same thing as a nationwide crash.

Most homeowners still have substantial equity

Even as some markets cool, overall homeowner equity remains high.

In Cotality’s (formerly CoreLogic) Homeowner Equity Report, the company noted:

• The average homeowner still has about $299,000 in accumulated home equity
• However, the number of homes in negative equity increased to about 1.2 million homes 

What this means if you own a home

Here’s the practical takeaway: don’t let fear drive your next move.

If you’re staying put, small swings in the market matter less than your long-term trend and your neighborhood’s demand. If you’re selling, you want smart pricing and a strong presentation. If you’re buying, calmer conditions can mean better leverage, more time, and more thoughtful decisions.

Why local Scottsdale/Phoenix data beats national headlines

National stats are a useful context, but your home’s value is set by local data, not national sales data. Recent sales, inventory, days on market, and what buyers are willing to pay in your specific pocket of the market are what drive local data.

If you want to see what’s happening locally right now, these tools can help:

• Scottsdale & Phoenix market snapshot (local trend check - enter a city of community at the top left)
• Free home valuation (property-specific estimate)
• Scottsdale luxury homes for sale (pricing context in your tier) 
• Phoenix luxury homes for sale (inventory + positioning) 
• Recently sold homes (the best “reality check” for comps)

Bottom Line

Home prices aren’t crashing nationally. The most reputable datasets, including FHFA and NAR, show continued year-over-year price resilience, and homeowner equity remains substantial for most people. 

If you want a clear, data-driven analysis on what’s happening in your Scottsdale or Phoenix neighborhood—and what it means for your home’s value, timing, and leverage—call Jeff Hernandez, Esq., Scottsdale Real Estate Agent & Attorney at (602) 550-1114.