Why Metro Phoenix Real Estate is Defying the National Slowdown

By Jeff Hernandez, Realtor & Attorney — The Connie Colla Group at RETSY

The national housing market in 2025 is in flux. Headlines paint a picture of slowing sales, rising inventory, and hesitant buyers. But here in Metro Phoenix, we’re seeing something very different. Our local real estate market is showing surprising resilience, even outperforming broader national trends. I want to offer not only data but real-world context for why this market remains strong, and what that means for you as a buyer or seller.

Understanding the National Picture

National vs. Phoenix Market Comparison

This table illustrates the contrasting trends between national real estate markets and Metro Phoenix, highlighting how our market outperforms broader U.S. trends.

Across the United States, real estate has been cooling. According to data from Redfin and other major industry sources:

• New listings are down 2.2% year-over-year
  
  
• Pending home sales have dropped by 31.4%
  
  
• Median home prices have decreased by 0.6% nationally

These numbers point to a significant slowdown. High interest rates, affordability challenges, and general economic uncertainty have prompted many would-be buyers to step back, while sellers hesitate to list their homes in fear of losing historically low mortgage rates.

And yet, Metro Phoenix appears to be defying this narrative.

Phoenix: A Market That Breaks the Mold

Let’s compare that national outlook to what’s happening here in the Valley:

• New listings are up by 13.2%
  
  
• Median home price has increased by 1.3%, reaching $485,000
  
  
• Pending home sales have decreased only 5%
  
  

That last point is worth emphasizing. A 5% drop in pending sales is minimal compared to the national average. It tells a story of a market that’s still active, still attracting buyers, and still offering opportunities.

As a Realtor who works with buyers and sellers across Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and surrounding neighborhoods, I’ve witnessed this firsthand. We’re not just seeing numbers on a chart—we’re seeing open houses with foot traffic, listings going under contract in days, and competitive (yet reasonable) bidding.

What Makes Metro Phoenix So Resilient?

Phoenix Strength Drivers

Phoenix’s unique blend of affordability, growth, and lifestyle continues to position it ahead of the national curve.

1. In-Migration and Population Growth

Phoenix continues to attract new residents. Whether it’s retirees relocating for the weather, professionals seeking a better cost of living, or remote workers trading crowded cities for desert tranquility, people are still moving here.

This influx of new residents fuels demand. In fact, many of my recent clients are from California, Washington, and Illinois. They’re selling high-priced homes and finding more space and value here in Arizona.

2. Supply That Meets Demand

Unlike other metros facing inventory shortages, Phoenix has seen an increase in listings. Builders have remained active, and many homeowners are finally ready to sell.

I work with people relocating from all over the United States. When we tour homes, some are amazed at the options. That’s not something buyers in many other cities can say right now.

3. Economic Stability and Local Industry

The Valley’s economy is diverse and growing. From tech hubs in Chandler and the Northwest Valley to healthcare expansion in the East Valley, employment remains steady. This gives buyers confidence. Steady income leads to stable housing demand.

Moreover, Arizona’s favorable tax structure and business-friendly policies continue to attract investment, helping to fuel not only job growth but also long-term residential development.

4. Lifestyle and Climate

Let’s not underestimate the quality of life. Phoenix offers sunshine, stunning landscapes, and access to outdoor activities throughout the year. This lifestyle appeals to everyone from retirees to young families.

The ability to engage in sporting activities year-round (except outside during the peak summer months) is a significant draw for people seeking to escape the cold and wet winters elsewhere.

Housing Affordability and Price Trends

Affordability is on everyone’s mind. The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) in Metro Phoenix sits around 66-67—a figure that reflects growing challenges for first-time buyers.

Yet, there’s another side to that story. Compared to Los Angeles or San Francisco, Phoenix still represents excellent value. Buyers relocating from high-cost metros often find they can afford more space, newer homes, and better amenities.

In 2020, the pandemic jump-started a housing boom here, with prices rising 53% in just a few years. While prices have since stabilized, they remain strong. Experts now forecast a 3.5% to 5.5% increase in home values through 2026, thanks to steady demand and healthy competition.

Negotiation is Back in Style

One of the most noticeable shifts in today’s market? Negotiation.

During the peak of the seller’s market, buyers had little leverage. Waiving inspections, covering appraisal gaps—you name it. Today, it’s a different game. Sellers are more flexible, and smart buyers are negotiating.

A significant percentage of homes now sell below asking price, while only a small percentage sell at or above asking price. That signals balance. Whether you’re buying or selling, strategy matters more than ever.

The Luxury Market Is Thriving

Phoenix Luxury Real Estate Snapshot (2025)

This data illustrates the strength and velocity of the luxury sector in Phoenix, defying national cooling trends.

While affordability remains a concern in some sectors, the luxury market is seeing sustained growth. Neighborhoods like Silverleaf, Arcadia, and Paradise Valley are hotbeds for high-end activity.

Recent stats show that luxury properties (those priced $1 million and above) are moving faster in Phoenix than in many other parts of the country. International buyers and remote executives continue to show interest in these areas.

What Buyers Need to Know in 2025

If you’re buying this year, here are a few key takeaways:

• Be prepared, but patient: More inventory means more options. Don’t rush.
  
  
• Know your numbers: Work with a trusted lender to understand your true buying power.
  
  
• Negotiate wisely: Price isn’t the only term that matters. Inspection periods, repairs, closing costs—all are on the table.
  
  
• Work with a local expert: Online research only goes so far. Market conditions shift block by block.
  
  

What Sellers Should Consider Now

Selling in 2025? You’re in a good position—if you price your home correctly. Buyers are savvy and have options. Overpricing can lead to prolonged listings and stale interest.

Make sure your home is show-ready, well-marketed, and accurately priced. A skilled Realtor with negotiation expertise can help you position your property for the best possible return.

The Road Ahead: What to Watch

As we move through the second half of 2025, here are a few things I’m keeping an eye on:

• Interest rate shifts: Even modest changes can impact affordability
  
  
• Local job growth: Especially in sectors like tech, healthcare, and logistics
  
  
• Migration trends: Continued influx from higher-cost states
  
  
• New construction activity: Particularly in areas like Buckeye, Goodyear, Peoria, and Queen Creek, where growth is increasing.

Each of these factors will shape our market. But overall, I remain optimistic. Phoenix isn’t just growing—it’s maturing. And that’s good news for everyone involved.

Conclusion

If you’re navigating the Phoenix real estate market this year, you don’t have to go it alone. Whether you’re a buyer searching for value or a seller ready to capitalize on your investment, the key is expert guidance.

With my background in law and real estate, I bring a level of strategy, professionalism, and advocacy that sets me apart. Every transaction is personal. Every client matters. Let’s have a conversation about your goals, your timing, and what matters most to you.

At Jeff Hernandez, Esq., Scottsdale Real Estate Agent & Attorney, I combine decades of legal expertise with real estate insight to offer a service unlike any other in the Valley. Whether you're buying your dream home or selling your current property, I'm here to help you make informed, confident decisions every step of the way.

Call me today at 602-550-1114, or email me at jeff@conniecollagroup.com. I look forward to helping you achieve your real estate goals. Whether you're buying your dream home or selling your current property, I'm here to help you make informed, confident decisions every step of the way.